Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 23.203026 25.273510 27.514254 30.131494 33.119938 36.444182 40.447319
2025-11-30 19.807608 22.610147 25.859163 29.951435 35.037074 41.244496 49.547763
2025-12-07 17.614582 20.825801 24.749641 29.997560 36.994919 46.256849 59.911754
2025-12-14 15.965129 19.396970 23.767721 29.905565 38.589575 50.933160 70.850153
2025-12-21 15.090179 18.793484 23.693316 30.899210 41.702812 58.213715 87.561409
2025-12-28 13.952976 17.695451 22.789110 30.547088 42.716837 62.439141 100.502567
2026-01-04 13.102713 16.890123 22.178727 30.498498 44.120444 67.497573 116.576884
2026-01-11 12.473342 16.325931 21.837263 30.781293 46.055229 73.836267 137.629760
2026-01-18 11.782433 15.610610 21.194669 30.490125 46.932337 78.370828 156.633206
2026-01-25 11.216478 15.031009 20.698072 30.363519 48.055096 83.614538 179.931179
2026-02-01 10.737697 14.543854 20.297075 30.339848 49.344476 89.498870 208.322342
2026-02-08 10.282113 14.059223 19.857225 30.192449 50.357876 95.018246 239.259026
2026-02-15 9.845289 13.588563 19.423408 30.045947 51.430834 101.191474 278.201016
2026-02-22 9.432957 13.132694 18.982487 29.845560 52.378934 107.418073 323.793098
2026-03-01 9.099461 12.780794 18.687211 29.883342 53.851833 115.554095 387.626532
2026-03-08 8.770629 12.416406 18.342973 29.788743 55.014326 123.264900 461.122796
2026-03-15 8.646252 12.373715 18.543953 30.775552 58.874671 140.686064 627.969244
2026-03-22 8.319735 11.980196 18.102792 30.424966 59.433093 147.746685 742.214680
2026-03-29 8.062829 11.688731 17.822908 30.376471 60.750270 158.089036 920.355910
2026-04-05 7.871184 11.496216 17.706901 30.657576 62.985848 173.017381 1220.053044
2026-04-12 7.613145 11.178292 17.341637 30.368050 63.634520 182.091836 1505.945425
2026-04-19 7.393650 10.916114 17.063406 30.242157 64.727283 193.759919 1943.969717
2026-04-26 7.200882 10.691125 16.840886 30.218618 66.120681 207.745044 2628.102088